Turkey today: Crisis or doom?
Latest news from Turkey are hard to follow from our Western democracy point of view. The information about journalists and intellectuals, who either are thrown into prison or are leaving the country, are diconcerting. What makes matters worse is a commercial crisis capturing the country. With the help of military intervention within area of conflicts president Recep Erdogan tries to redirect the attention away from his mismanagement. On the other hand he tries to revive the dream of the Ottoman Empire. Orhan Sat, political scientist and secretary at the trade union Ver.di, talks in his lecture about a crisis if not the imminent doom of the Turkish republic and economy. In his outlook he also cannot raise our hopes.
The attempted coup in July 2016
Initial point of the lecture is the attemted coup on July 15th, 2016. On that day parts of the military is revolting in the big Turkish cities such as Istanbul and Ankara against the government of Erdogan. The president howevere succeeds in thwarting it. The preacher Fetullah Gülen is suspected behind the organised coup, he lives in the United States of America. Subsequently a large-scale chase and arrest wave starts causing an uproar also in the news magazines of Western Europe.
As a result of the failed attempt, Orhan Sat tells us, the two political parties AKP and MHP formed an alliance. In order to retain his power Erdogan reformed the constitution qua referendum substantially. Since 2018 he is the sole sovereign at the Bosporus and appoints for example ministers coming from is loyal environment. These administration officials, Sat explains to us, can be successful entrepreneurs at the same time.
Pulling the wool over the republic’s eyes with projects
Since the elections in 2018 the president tries to retain his power by executing different operations. One pillar is the is the revaluation of the mythology around the Ottoman Empire which lasted from 1299 until 1929. A second pillar is the regaining strength of Islam as the leading religion, exactly the opposite of what Atatürk, the people’s “father” wanted: a secular state. A third pillar is the privatization of the public sector combined to a business elite that is loyal to Erdogan. Sectors such as sugar or cement industry or the ship and road building have been privatized recently.
Concerning the domestic economy Erdogan tries to asert himself by large-scale projects such as the Istanbul-channel. Externally he tries the same via military intervention into failed states such as Syria, Afghanistan and Lybia.
Economic crisis at Turkey
However what really threatens Erdogans power is the continuing economic crisis of the country. Whereas Erdogan was praised for his economic success at the beginning of his term his fortune turned upside down meanwhile: The Turkish Lira is in a freefall, the unemployment is zooming.
Erdogans extended arm in Germany
The last overhead transparency Orhan Sat displays that night is read with much attention by the spectators. It is about the lobbyists-organisations which are acting on behalf of Erdogan within Germany and Europe. On transparency shows eleven different organisation, among them notorious names such as the “Grauen Wölfe” or subversive unions such as Osmanli Ocaklari and so on. The murmuration within the audience is considerably.
What will the future look like?
If and how long Erdogan can cling to his power Orhan Sat does not know. His conclusions are rather thoughtful, well almost gloomy. The president’s biggest pledge towards Europe is definitely the situation of the Syrian refugees in Turkey. A service well paid for by the EU. Time will tell for how long this all-or-nothing gamble will last.
